Being Wrong (Part 1): Infants feel pain, an asteroid killed the dinosaurs, and 28 other things that almost everyone didn’t know until recently.
Part 1 of a two-part series on what virtually all of us are probably wrong about.
It consistently surprises me that I can be totally wrong about lots of things all the time, and somehow still be manage to be utterly certain of so many things in the present. This happens at a societal level as well, and across virtually all fields of knowledge. Experts are those most at risk of suffering from chronic over-confidence.
The treatment for being consistently confident only to later find out you were wrong, I think, probably involves (in part) regularly reviewing cases where virtually everyone, at some point in the relatively recent past, was wrong about something important.
Here are 30 examples I’ve compiled, organized loosely by domain:
Physics and Cosmology
Until 1924, astronomers believed the Milky Way was the entire universe. Edwin Hubble proved other galaxies existed, revealing our galaxy as just one among billions and completely transforming our understanding of the cosmos's scale.
Until the 1930s, most scientists believed the universe was eternal and static. The discovery of universal expansion and subsequent evidence for the Big Bang showed our universe had a definite beginning and continues to expand.
Until 1912, geologists believed Earth was only 100 million years old based on Lord Kelvin's calculations. Radiometric dating proved Earth is about 4.5 billion years old; Kelvin hadn't known about radioactive decay providing internal heat.
Until 1957, physicists believed nature strictly conserved parity (mirror symmetry) in all interactions. The discovery that weak nuclear forces violate this symmetry fundamentally changed our understanding of physical law.
Until 1995, most astronomers believed that other solar systems would mirror ours (small rocky planets close, gas giants far). Exoplanet discoveries revealed incredible diversity in planetary systems, including "hot Jupiters" and super-Earths.
Biology and Life
Until 1953, scientists had no idea what DNA looked like or how genetic information was stored. The discovery of the double helix revealed an elegantly simple yet powerful information storage system that transforms our understanding of life itself.
Until 1977, biologists believed all complex life required sunlight to survive. The discovery of thriving deep-sea hydrothermal vent ecosystems showed life could exist on chemosynthesis alone, expanding our understanding of life's possibilities.
Until 1938, the entire fishing industry believed coelacanths had been extinct for 66 million years. The discovery of living specimens showed how entire lineages of ancient species can survive undetected, challenging our assumptions about extinction.
Until 1842, no one knew dinosaurs had existed at all. When the first fossils were systematically studied, they revealed an entire era of Earth's history dominated by these creatures, completely changing our understanding of life's history.
Until 1980, no one knew what killed the dinosaurs. The asteroid impact theory was initially ridiculed, but the discovery of the iridium layer and Chicxulub crater proved a massive impact caused mass extinction.
Consciousness and Intelligence
Until the 1990s, most neuroscientists believed that adults couldn't generate new neurons. The discovery of adult neurogenesis showed our brains continue creating new neurons throughout life, revolutionizing our understanding of brain plasticity.
Until 2010, most cognitive scientists believed consciousness required a human-like brain structure. Studies of octopus intelligence revealed sophisticated consciousness emerging from radically different neural organization.
Until 1995, primatologists believed that great apes couldn't learn human language. Studies with gorillas and chimps showed they can learn and use hundreds of signs, combining them creatively for novel expressions.
Until 2000, scientists believed that bacteria couldn't survive in the human stomach due to its acidity. H. pylori and other extremophiles showed life could thrive in supposedly impossible conditions.
Until the 1960s, scientists believed animals didn't experience emotions or feel pain in any meaningful way. Extensive research revealed complex emotional lives in many species, including grief, joy, and empathy.
Medicine and Health
Until 1847, doctors didn't wash their hands between performing autopsies and delivering babies. When Ignaz Semmelweis provided evidence this was killing patients, he was ridiculed and committed to an asylum; we now know he was right about germ theory.
Until the 1980s, doctors believed that stomach ulcers were primarily caused by stress and spicy foods. Barry Marshall had to deliberately infect himself with H. pylori bacteria to prove it was the real cause.
Until the 1990s, doctors routinely performed surgery on infants without anesthesia, believing babies couldn't feel pain. We now know infants actually have heightened pain sensitivity.
Until 1985, scientists believed peptic ulcers couldn't be caused by bacteria because "bacteria can't survive in stomach acid." Direct evidence proved this assumption completely wrong.
Until the 1940s, doctors believed babies shouldn't cry and that picking up crying babies would spoil them. Research has shown responsive care is crucial for healthy development.
Mind and Behavior
Until the 1990s, scientists believed memories were stored like permanent recordings. Research on memory reconsolidation showed memories change each time they're recalled, fundamentally changing our understanding of how memory works.
Until 1980, behavioral scientists believed that rats wouldn't help other rats without reward. Research revealed sophisticated empathy and prosocial behavior in rodents, challenging our assumptions about animal morality.
Until 2005, most experts believed that only humans and great apes could recognize themselves in mirrors. We now know this capability extends to elephants, dolphins, corvids, and even ants, suggesting greater consciousness throughout nature.
Until the 1970s, behaviorists dominated psychology and insisted that all behavior was learned through conditioning. Recognition of innate behaviors and genetic influences completely transformed our understanding of behavior.
Until the 1980s, most psychologists believed that personality and intelligence were fixed by age five. Research on neuroplasticity showed the brain remains remarkably adaptable throughout life.
The Past 15 Years
Until 2016, most computer scientists believed that AI couldn't beat humans at Go. DeepMind's AlphaGo defeated the world champion, showing machines could master even the most complex strategy games.
Until 2012, most AI researchers believed that machines couldn't outperform humans at protein folding. AlphaFold solved this "50-year grand challenge," revolutionizing structural biology.
Until 2019, most AI researchers believed that language models couldn't perform few-shot learning. Modern AI models demonstrated remarkable ability to learn from minimal examples.
Until 2015, most researchers believed AI couldn't create genuinely novel art or music. Today's generative AI models create sophisticated original works, challenging our assumptions about creativity.
Until 2010, most experts believed that mindfulness meditation had no measurable physical effects. Neuroimaging studies have shown it causes significant structural changes in the brain, validating ancient practices with modern science.
So what are virtually all of us potentially wrong about right now? Stay tuned for Part 2 of this series, coming whenever I can find some time between diaper changes to finish it, where I’ll explore some plausible answers to that question in a bit more detail.